View Full Version : so, the housing market begs the question
If I only want to live in this Very Expensive Area for 3 years, do we bother buying? We can lease for less than a house payment. Significantly enough less to raise the question in my mind, especially if the market's going to continue to tank here. I'm not really wanting to plop down the equity from my old house and lose it all in a housing crash and real estate fees from buying and selling so fast.
OTOH, I get great joy from working on a house and the yard, and I'll be stifled in that respect. I suppose, depending on the house and the landlord, there might be some wiggle room, certainly with respect to gardening.
I'm pretty sure Clark Howard would say to lease. For now, I'll sit in this very cheap (but too far from the big city) house for a few more months while we try to decide.
I remember Val saying it's not likely that she'll buy a house when houses are too expensive to afford, and rent is affordable where she is. I think I'm finding myself in the same situation all of a sudden. It's very odd to me, after owning the same house for 10 years to feel so unsettled. I hope if we do rent that we can find a place that's worth staying in for a couple of years.
back2thebasics
12-03-2007, 08:59 PM
I regularly listen to Crown Financial and they say to buy if you are going to be in the house for at least 5 years. I think if you found something at a great price and were pretty sure you could fix it up enough to make a profit in 3 years then it would be worth it.
Yeah, Clark Howard says something similar. I think he was saying 3-5 years minimum, and we're looking at 3. Not really enough to justify buying, though.
My heart wants to buy and my head wants to lease. Bleah. I'm going to make a pro/con spreadsheet and learn more about buying houses on the courthouse steps. Honestly, though, in terms of simplicity, a lease on a nice house has its points.
I need facts and figures. I need to read projections for the local market, figures on how far below market foreclosures tend to be, etc. I need to either find a way to take some of the risk out of buying for the short term or be settled with the idea that a lease will be better for me in my head and in my heart.
tracey
12-03-2007, 09:33 PM
i was going to respond to your email but i guess i can say it just as easily here.
i have wondered a couple times about you buying and selling so quickly up there...it's not a flip kind of market any more and likely won't be for the next 3-5 years, depending on when the foreclosure/ARM situation stablilizes. probably at the least that long from the END of the market tanking that is still spiraling downward...
i think i'd stick that equity in an interest bearing, lower-risk situation (you are better versed than i in that sort of thing) and add to it as you can. keep your cost of living as low as possible while setting aside as much as you can.
you're in a sweet situation in that you CAN take the time needed to find a good landlord...one ok with the pets and kids. that's the kicker...someone ok with 4 animals and 3 children. your financials and credit are fabulous, as are your personal references, so hopefully that will get you farther with the landlord situation than the average person who has never been a homeowner.
:hug:
and you CAN paint and hang things on the walls. just fix them before you leave ;) you've seen our rentals...we painted in every one we ever had and just fixed them before we left. i always had photos on the walls...
Megmama
12-03-2007, 10:41 PM
Well, what Tracey said. :D
We're renting for now because we just can't deal with buying after having lost money on our other house. However, we have an option later to buy this house since the owners are willing to sell. I am watching the market slide even here in Gainesville where it doesn't slide as much as other places because of the U. and hoping that it will slide enough for us to afford a decent home in a year or two.
Meanwhile, I love this little bitty house :D
juliebelle
12-03-2007, 11:55 PM
personally if i knew i wasn't going to be somewhere longer than 3 years i would rent...
the only way i would buy is if i bought something waaaaaay below it's value or buying something that is always in high demand no matter what the market is like....something that is just very very desirable.
ThirtySomething
12-04-2007, 12:26 AM
personally if i knew i wasn't going to be somewhere longer than 3 years i would rent...
the only way i would buy is if i bought something waaaaaay below it's value or buying something that is always in high demand no matter what the market is like....something that is just very very desirable.
nak
ditto. there may be such a thing in DC too.
i have read that it will prob be around 3 yrs before the market begins to rebound. Would whatever company that your dh went to work for help you resell the house? that would matter to me in the decision making process.
Finding a deal would make a difference too. I like sweat equity :D
juliebelle
12-04-2007, 12:37 AM
Finding a deal would make a difference too. I like sweat equity :D
speaking of...we need a kitchen update
LatteLover
12-04-2007, 12:42 AM
Well a normal housing market appreciates about 4% a year. Let's say a $200K house (which yes, I know you would not find in DC but for the sake of math).
3% closing as buyer $6000
4% appreciation year 1 $208000
4% appreciation year 2 $216320
4% appreciation year 3 $233625
6% realtor fee $14017
3% seller closing $7000
So you are up $33625 ish in equity (not including what you have paid off)
And out $27000. So you would be able to maybe make a slight profit but of course, most homes have some maintenance expenses over 3 years or improvements made to them. But those are basic numbers which I think help to show where that 3 year number comes from. Of course, houses are a bit of a gamble because they can appreciate much faster or depreciate.
That's essentially the calculation I'm thinking, and at the moment, it seems depreciation is a bit more likely, right? I wish I knew what a bargain looked like here, what would be desirable, etc. I really don't. I suspect that ludicrously expensive Fairfax county will continue to be very desirable, but I'm not sure we have that kind of money...
I love working with my hands. I'd love to do the work. I just don't know that 3 years is enough. And I don't think I want to be here longer. We'll see. I could be wrong about that.
I can park our equity money at almost 5.5%. That's a pretty nice rate compared to a house that could well sink in value.
I think that I'll spend a lot of time reading after xmas. In the meantime, we're in a perfectly serviceable house, just not where we want to settle.
And darn it all, I really liked Rockville, MD. I'm tempted to buy there just because I like it and I like being a homeowner. Personal satisfaction is a factor, isn't it?
(ok, I was just getting some info together for my real estate agent in Atlanta, and noticed that Countrywide has a REO section on their site. I emailed them about a house. :p But I also emailed someone on craigslist about a really well price rental... )
Gloriel
12-04-2007, 10:00 AM
I don't know... I'm partial to owning a home. The housing market does stink, but the dc area is somewhat more protected than the rest of the country with all the government jobs and all. There will always be people looking for houses in that area.
You need to come out my way-- lots of deals to be had right now! I'm kidding, because we're about an hour away from the city and with gas prices and traffic the commute is wretched, but it is gorgeous out here! I'm such a country girl.
LatteLover
12-04-2007, 11:01 AM
I am going to have this exact decision to make when we move again, probably this next year. Do I buy for about 3 years or rent. I can't imagine renting again after owning for 6 years. However, we want to go in super student loan debt repayment mode, so I think renting would help that. I think it is really going to come down to what I can find to rent.
That may be the case for us, too, Emily. I'm looking at what's available in rentals and the pricing, and trying to see what's comparable for buying, weighing options and whatnot. Luckily, we have a place, and our friends wouldn't care if we stayed on for the next 3 years. They're actually planning to make it an official rental house till the market rebounds a little, anyway. DH can't stand this commute, but it's buying us time to learn the area better and make a better decision.
I'd love to live an hour out, and I'd last indefinitely in this area if we could go out to the country, but DH would hate such a long commute. :p The whole reason I gave DH a deadline is because I'm a country girl, myself, and I'm bound to want land, lots of land, and the starry skies above sooner rather than later.
back2thebasics
12-04-2007, 01:21 PM
I'd love to live an hour out, and I'd last indefinitely in this area if we could go out to the country, but DH would hate such a long commute. :p The whole reason I gave DH a deadline is because I'm a country girl, myself, and I'm bound to want land, lots of land, and the starry skies above sooner rather than later.
I can see this being an issue for my family soon. When my dh graduates we will be looking for a job in the aviation industry, sadly most of these jobs are near cities, and I just don't want to raise my kids in town!! We won't move unless we can live out of town, and I guess how far my dh will commute will be a large factor in the equation.
Korwynne
12-04-2007, 08:41 PM
I'd rent unless you know you'll be there 5 years. The selling of a house is such a pain in the butt that I'd be unwilling to do it for less time than that.
I'm starting to feel that way this week, Jodi. On the other hand, I really, really like owning. Is that my inner whiney child or is it me being true to myself? I used to dream of owning a home as a kid. Really. Jobs were secondary in my life goals. I really just saw jobs as a means to the end of being able to buy a house to play with. If that's where I'm coming from, I think I should do my best to honor this thing that's really important to me. As Murali would say, it feeds my soul.
Here's my current stance, after juggling this around for a couple of days:
I'm going to try to find a way to own that cuts my losses. I talked to someone in Countrywide's REO department today, and they definitely bend over backwards to sell the properties they own due to foreclosure. That's one option. If it just doesn't seem reasonable after exploring the buying options, I'll have to hang up a part of me for a few years. Or park our equity in an emergency backup house near my sister instead of a MMA and go play with that house several times a year. Don't want my tools to seize up from under-use. ;)
mamagael
12-05-2007, 04:11 AM
I'm starting to feel that way this week, Jodi. On the other hand, I really, really like owning. Is that my inner whiney child or is it me being true to myself? I used to dream of owning a home as a kid. Really. Jobs were secondary in my life goals. I really just saw jobs as a means to the end of being able to buy a house to play with. If that's where I'm coming from, I think I should do my best to honor this thing that's really important to me. As Murali would say, it feeds my soul.
Here's my current stance, after juggling this around for a couple of days:
I'm going to try to find a way to own that cuts my losses. I talked to someone in Countrywide's REO department today, and they definitely bend over backwards to sell the properties they own due to foreclosure. That's one option. If it just doesn't seem reasonable after exploring the buying options, I'll have to hang up a part of me for a few years. Or park our equity in an emergency backup house near my sister instead of a MMA and go play with that house several times a year. Don't want my tools to seize up from under-use. ;)
Yes! Emergency back-up house!! Thats really the only logical solution, buy a house near me NOT where you live . I'll vacation rent it for you...
Megmama
12-05-2007, 08:09 AM
Maybe you need an emergency back up farm in Alachua :D ::whistling innocently::
Think I have enough for both? :p Maybe at 1970 prices...
BlueRoseMama
12-05-2007, 09:02 PM
I would love to buy, but it just doesn't make sense around here. We would be doubling our houseing payment for anything close to better than what we have. Now we could, pretty easily, roll all our other accnts into the house, so we would only have one payment, but that wouldn't make me feel better. It would just make the prices more reasonable if we didn't have $500 in cc debt every month.
blah blah blah... I don't have a brain tonight... we had a late nap and I am totally groggy.
Val
Korwynne
12-05-2007, 10:42 PM
see, ours made sense. The house we bought was an awesome price (a house around the corner that's 14 square feet bigger with a lot that's 300 feet bigger is listed at $50k more than we just paid) and we're never going to move again. With the area that Val's in, I think the rents are much more reasonable than they are up in Bonney Lake..
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